Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 190.503755 231.260632 281.753188 350.051836 441.852955 5.637526e+02 7.428278e+02
2025-04-27 149.450468 198.772125 268.161641 377.099500 552.388356 8.408765e+02 1.396100e+03
2025-05-04 125.130254 177.063610 256.917760 396.932687 656.927499 1.172615e+03 2.466094e+03
2025-05-11 107.853077 159.799019 245.245425 408.802417 751.377457 1.556318e+03 4.203196e+03
2025-05-18 94.262774 144.722288 232.250390 412.226526 830.142144 1.977451e+03 6.972647e+03
2025-05-25 82.645016 130.406182 216.757340 404.818455 880.839297 2.381955e+03 1.105278e+04
2025-06-01 73.036767 117.812516 201.542595 392.844629 914.470420 2.781334e+03 1.722665e+04
2025-06-08 65.202402 107.138810 187.833092 379.996344 939.885013 3.196557e+03 2.706469e+04
2025-06-15 63.238762 106.970314 195.021038 419.299351 1150.120357 4.803545e+03 8.253103e+04
2025-06-22 58.676946 101.098583 189.035240 423.170319 1246.930437 6.079141e+03 2.110280e+05
2025-06-29 55.511248 97.527046 187.375003 438.444416 1401.725806 8.267385e+03 9.844677e+05
2025-07-06 51.507971 91.727245 179.628140 433.871212 1473.603340 1.012209e+04 6.090543e+06
2025-07-13 50.386919 91.953298 186.483792 478.057420 1827.690375 1.747414e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 48.844058 91.078874 190.595025 516.160698 2214.385702 3.073602e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 46.980086 89.232990 191.891037 545.723944 2608.532171 5.452418e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 44.819335 86.428821 190.127928 563.707544 2967.223747 9.533595e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 42.430890 82.808440 185.495320 568.918370 3249.184335 1.601349e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 39.769496 78.257748 177.523605 557.620437 3379.237768 2.386667e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 37.171863 73.607002 168.590912 539.423297 3426.010842 3.339390e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 34.793921 69.266387 159.958062 519.982030 3441.128183 4.601746e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 34.702107 70.467163 167.835334 579.726601 4522.186190 3.643529e+06 NaN
2025-09-14 33.251074 68.145781 164.680610 585.654304 4965.120638 2.017187e+07 NaN
2025-09-21 32.286762 66.954000 164.859877 609.118089 5786.003589 1.138873e+11 NaN